Korea has only 33.3% chance of winning the quarterfinals What’s the best game scenario?

South Korea’s national soccer team (23rd in FIFA ranking) led by coach Jürgen Klinsmann will face Australia (25th in FIFA ranking) in the quarterfinals of the 2023 AFC Asian Cup at Al-Zanub Stadium in Al-Wakra, Qatar, at 12:30 a.m. on the 3rd (Korea time).

“Opta,” a soccer statistics media outlet, predicted the probability of Korea winning the quarterfinals at the 2023 Asian Football Confederation (AFC) ahead of the match on Sunday (Korea time). According to media, Korea has a 33.3 percent chance of winning against Australia.

Korea was mentioned as a strong candidate to win the title ahead of the upcoming event. However, Korea’s performance was not good after the start of the event.

In their first group match, they met Bahrain (ranked 86th in FIFA rankings) and won the match 3-1 thanks to Hwang In-beom’s first goal and Lee Kang-in’s multiple goals. However, they were not satisfied with the game.

In the second match, the team met Jordan (ranked 87th in FIFA ranking), which was a level below the FIFA ranking, but ended up in a draw. In the last group match against Malaysia (ranked 130th in FIFA ranking), the team allowed an equalizer just before the end of the match, and ended up in a draw. Korea advanced to the round of 16 by ranking second in the group.

In the round of 16, the team was led by Saudi Arabia (ranking 56th in FIFA rankings) as it scored the first goal. Cho Kyu-sung scored a dramatic equalizer at 9 minutes of extra time in the second half, and made it to the quarterfinals after a penalty shootout.

Australia is showing good performance at this year’s event. The team had wins over India (102nd in FIFA ranking) and Syria (91st in FIFA ranking) in the group league, and then tied with Uzbekistan (68th in FIFA ranking). The team advanced to the round of 16 by ranking No. 1 in Group B with two wins and one draw. In the match against Indonesia (ranked 146th in FIFA ranking), the team had a landslide 4-0 victory, advancing to the quarterfinals.

Australia has lost only one goal in four matches of this year’s event. The team has stable defensive lines. It is full of huge players, including Sutta, a 2-meter tall defender who plays for Leicester City in England. Candidate center defender Cameron Burgess is also 194 centimeters tall. Center midfielder Jackson Irvin is also 190 centimeters tall. Australia has the advantage of height.

According to the media, there is only a 33.3 percent chance that Korea will win. On the other hand, Australia has a 40 percent chance of winning. There is a 26.7 percent chance of a penalty shootout after the draw. Objectively, Korea is at a bit of a disadvantage. It is due to physical strength.

Throughout this year’s event, Korea had similar players on its roster. Key players never rested properly. In addition, the team played for more than 130 minutes including extra time in the round of 16. Korea has advanced to the quarterfinals just two days after the round of 16. It is not physically perfect.

On the other hand, Australia had more breaks than Korea after the match on the 28th (Korea time). Australia coach Graham Arnold also said, “We can take two more days off than Korea.”

The most desired result for Korea is to watch the game in 90 minutes and reach the semifinals. To do so, we need a quick first goal. There are ample possibilities. Australia’s tall defense has relatively weak speed.

South Korea has high-speed strikers such as Son Heung-min and Hwang Hee-chan. It can target the slow-speed Australian defense.

BY: 스포츠토토

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